2026 Cycle
U.S. Senate Races
Every seat up in 2026 — including special elections — with live prediction-market odds on each race, updating around the clock alongside averages of public polls.
Live · 2026 Senate Control
Democrats favored
R 36.5%
D 63.5%
Competitive
8 racesToss-up frames — the races that will decide control.
Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R)
96.2% ▲ 0.2Market Odds
Jon Ossoff (D)
Mike Collins (R) 3.7%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Ossoff +9.6
Ossoff 53.5 · Collins 43.9 · 3 polls · as of Oct 3, 2026
Raised: Jon Ossoff (D) $98.0M · Mike Collins (R) $7.5M · FEC, through Sep 30, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
70.5% Market Odds
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R) 30.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: El-Sayed +3.8
El-Sayed 47.9 · Rogers 44.1 · 11 polls · as of Oct 1, 2026
Raised: Abdul El-Sayed (D) $14.5M · Mike Rogers (R) $10.9M · FEC, through Sep 30, 2026
Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R)
95.9% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R) 4.2%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Cooper +10.3
Cooper 50.8 · Whatley 40.5 · 7 polls · as of Oct 11, 2026
Raised: Roy Cooper (D) $35.0M · Michael Whatley (R) $11.3M · FEC, through Jun 30, 2026
Perennial battleground, open seat raises stakes for both parties.
Troy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R)
59.5% Market Odds
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R) 41.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Jackson +2.1
Jackson 48.9 · Collins 46.8 · 9 polls · as of Oct 5, 2026
Raised: Susan Collins (R) $18.9M · FEC, through Jun 30, 2026
Collins seeking re-election in a state Democrats carry federally.
Chris Pappas (D) vs. John E. Sununu (R)
88.5% Market Odds
Chris Pappas (D)
John E. Sununu (R) 12.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Pappas +7.0
Pappas 49.3 · Sununu 42.3 · 3 polls · as of Sep 22, 2026
Raised: Chris Pappas (D) $15.4M · John E. Sununu (R) $4.2M · FEC, through Sep 30, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya (R)
87.5% ▲ 1Market Odds
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R) 12.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Flanagan +3.3
Flanagan 46 · Tafoya 42.7 · 3 polls · as of Oct 4, 2026
Raised: Peggy Flanagan (D) $6.5M · Michele Tafoya (R) $5.3M · FEC, through Jul 22, 2026
Open seat gives GOP its best Minnesota Senate opening in years.
Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)
61.5% Market Odds
Sherrod Brown (D)
Jon Husted (R) 38.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Brown +3.1
Brown 46.9 · Husted 43.8 · 7 polls · as of Oct 6, 2026
Raised: Sherrod Brown (D) $38.6M · Jon Husted (R) $14.4M · FEC, through Jun 30, 2026
Special election for the unexpired Vance term.
Ashley Moody (R) vs. Angie Nixon (D)
90.5% Market Odds
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D) 9.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Moody +6.3
Moody 49.5 · Nixon 43.2 · 5 polls · as of Oct 7, 2026
Raised: Ashley Moody (R) $11.3M · Angie Nixon (D) $975K · FEC, through Jul 29, 2026
Special election for the unexpired Rubio term.
Leaning
7 racesAn edge to one party, but on the board.
James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)
62.5% ▼ 1Market Odds
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R) 37.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Talarico +1.7
Talarico 47.5 · Paxton 45.8 · 8 polls · as of Oct 11, 2026
Raised: James Talarico (D) $68.6M · Ken Paxton (R) $9.2M · FEC, through Sep 30, 2026
Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D)
57.5% Market Odds
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D) 41.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Turek +0.5
Turek 45.8 · Hinson 45.3 · 5 polls · as of Oct 6, 2026
Raised: Ashley Hinson (R) $10.2M · Josh Turek (D) $6.3M · FEC, through Jun 30, 2026
Mary Peltola vs. Sen. Dan Sullivan
73.5% Market Odds
Mary Peltola
Sen. Dan Sullivan 26.5% · Ann Diener 0.1%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Sullivan +1.8
Sullivan 48.4 · Peltola 46.6 · 2 polls · as of Sep 30, 2026
Raised: Mary Peltola (D) $18.5M · Dan Sullivan (R) $11.7M · FEC, through Jul 29, 2026
Ranked-choice dynamics keep the frame open.
John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Mark Baisley (R)
98.1% Market Odds
John Hickenlooper (D)
Mark Baisley (R) 1.5%
Live · Prediction market
Raised: John Hickenlooper (D) $10.3M · Mark Baisley (R) $138K · FEC, through Sep 30, 2026
Leans Democratic statewide.
Mark Warner (D) vs. Bert Mizusawa (R)
97.8% Market Odds
Mark Warner (D)
Bert Mizusawa (R) 2%
Live · Prediction market
Raised: Mark Warner (D) $25.2M · Bert Mizusawa (R) $419K · FEC, through Jul 15, 2026
Leans Democratic; GOP watching the environment.
Ben Ray Luján (D) vs. Larry Marker (R)
97.7% Market Odds
Ben Ray Luján (D)
Larry Marker (R) 1.9%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Luján +18.0
Luján 54 · Marker 36 · 1 poll · as of Sep 30, 2026
Raised: Ben Ray Luján (D) $8.3M · Larry Marker (R) $92K · FEC, through Sep 30, 2026
Leans Democratic.
Cory Booker (D) vs. Justin Murphy (R)
97.3% ▼ 0.1Market Odds
Cory Booker (D)
Justin Murphy (R) 2.9%
Live · Prediction market
Raised: Cory Booker (D) $33.5M · Justin Murphy (R) $27K · FEC, through Jun 30, 2026
Leans Democratic; GOP gained ground in 2024-25 cycles.
Safe
20 racesStrongly favored for the incumbent party.
Tuberville seat (open — running for Governor)
Moore +21.0Poll Average
Moore 54 · Wess 33 · 1 poll · as of Sep 25, 2026
Tom Cotton (R) vs. Hallie Shoffner (D)
93.9% ▼ 0.7Market Odds
Tom Cotton (R)
Hallie Shoffner (D) 6%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Cotton +11.0
Cotton 51 · Shoffner 40 · 1 poll · as of Oct 4, 2026
Safe Republican.
Jim Risch (R) vs. Todd Achilles (I)
95.3% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Jim Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I) 4.1% · Democrat 0.1%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Risch +4.0
Risch 34 · Achilles 30 · 1 poll · as of Aug 7, 2026
Safe Republican.
Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)
62.5% Market Odds
Roger Marshall (R)
Adam Hamilton (D) 37.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Hamilton +2.0
Hamilton 47.5 · Marshall 45.5 · 2 polls · as of Sep 24, 2026
Safe Republican.
Andy Barr (R) vs. Charles Booker (D)
96.9% Market Odds
Andy Barr (R)
Charles Booker (D) 3.3%
Live · Prediction market
Julia Letlow (R) vs. Jamie Davis (D)
93% ▲ 0.5Market Odds
Julia Letlow (R)
Jamie Davis (D) 6.5%
Live · Prediction market
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) vs. Scott Colom (D)
91.5% ▼ 1Market Odds
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Scott Colom (D) 7.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Hyde-Smith +6.0
Hyde-Smith 47 · Colom 41 · 1 poll · as of Aug 15, 2026
Safe Republican.
Kurt Alme (R) vs. Independent
92.5% Market Odds
Kurt Alme (R)
Independent 6.6% · Alani Bankhead (D) 0.6%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Alme +19.5
Alme 44.5 · Bodnar 25 · 2 polls · as of Sep 24, 2026
Safe Republican.
Pete Ricketts (R) vs. Independent
72.5% Market Odds
Pete Ricketts (R)
Independent 27.5% · Democrat 0.1%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Ricketts +3.0
Ricketts 49 · Osborn 46 · 1 poll · as of Oct 5, 2026
Safe Republican; independent bid watched.
Kevin Hern (R) vs. N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)
97.2% Market Odds
Kevin Hern (R)
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D) 1.9%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Darline Graham Nordone (R) vs. Annie Andrews (D)
84.5% Market Odds
Darline Graham Nordone (R)
Annie Andrews (D) 15.5%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Graham +1.0
Graham 46 · Andrews 45 · 1 poll · as of Sep 29, 2026
Mike Rounds (R) vs. Brian Bengs (I)
94.3% ▼ 0.2Market Odds
Mike Rounds (R)
Brian Bengs (I) 5.8% · Democrat 0.2%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Bill Hagerty (R) vs. Marquita Bradshaw (D)
94.8% ▲ 0.5Market Odds
Bill Hagerty (R)
Marquita Bradshaw (D) 4.6%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Hagerty +20.0
Hagerty 51 · Bradshaw 31 · 1 poll · as of Aug 26, 2026
Safe Republican.
Shelley Moore Capito (R) vs. Rachel Fetty Anderson (D)
97.8% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) 1.1%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Harriet Hageman (R) vs. James W. Byrd (D)
98.4% Market Odds
Harriet Hageman (R)
James W. Byrd (D) 1.4%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Democrat vs. Republican
98.5% ▼ 0.1Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 1.7%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Juliana Stratton (D) vs. Don Tracy (R)
98.3% Market Odds
Juliana Stratton (D)
Don Tracy (R) 1.7%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Stratton +13.0
Stratton 49 · Tracy 36 · 1 poll · as of Oct 1, 2026
Ed Markey (D) vs. John Deaton (R)
98.2% ▼ 0.1Market Odds
Ed Markey (D)
John Deaton (R) 1.4%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Markey +24.5
Markey 52.5 · Deaton 28 · 2 polls · as of Sep 22, 2026
Jeff Merkley (D) vs. David Brock Smith (R)
98.1% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Jeff Merkley (D)
David Brock Smith (R) 2.1%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Jack Reed (D) vs. Raymond McKay (R)
98.2% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Jack Reed (D)
Raymond McKay (R) 1.7%
Live · Prediction market
Polls: Reed +20.0
Reed 53 · McKay 33 · 1 poll · as of Sep 21, 2026
Safe Democratic.
Primaries Still Active
5 racesNomination battles we are tracking before the general.
Paxton vs. Cornyn
No public polls yetOutlook
Marquee Republican primary of the cycle.
Open-seat field
No public polls yetOutlook
Race to succeed McConnell.
Field forming
No public polls yetOutlook
Winner faces Ossoff in the top general of the cycle.
Open-seat fields
No public polls yetOutlook
Contested primaries on both sides.
Open-seat field
No public polls yetOutlook
Competitive Democratic primary for the Durbin seat.
Polling data: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0)
Live market odds are streaming on 34 races and refresh continuously with trading. Market odds reflect implied probabilities from prediction-market participants and do not constitute a Precision poll or forecast. Averages marked “Pending” will populate as qualifying polling becomes available. See our methodology for inclusion criteria.